{"id":1781,"date":"2025-05-25T18:39:34","date_gmt":"2025-05-25T18:39:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/violethoward.com\/new\/googles-world-model-bet-building-the-ai-operating-layer-before-microsoft-captures-the-ui\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T18:39:34","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T18:39:34","slug":"googles-world-model-bet-building-the-ai-operating-layer-before-microsoft-captures-the-ui","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/violethoward.com\/new\/googles-world-model-bet-building-the-ai-operating-layer-before-microsoft-captures-the-ui\/","title":{"rendered":"Google\u2019s ‘world-model’ bet: building the AI operating layer before Microsoft captures the UI"},"content":{"rendered":" \r\n
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After three hours at Google\u2019s I\/O 2025 event last week in Silicon Valley, it became increasingly clear: Google is rallying its formidable AI efforts \u2013 prominently branded under the Gemini name but encompassing a diverse range of underlying model architectures and research \u2013 with laser focus. It is releasing a slew of innovations and technologies around it, then integrating them into products at a breathtaking pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond headline-grabbing features, Google laid out a bolder ambition: an operating system for the AI age \u2013 not the disk-booting kind, but a logic layer every app could tap \u2013 a \u201cworld model\u201d meant to power a universal assistant that understands our physical surroundings, and reasons and acts on our behalf. It\u2019s a strategic offensive that many observers may have missed amid the bamboozlement of features.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On one hand, it\u2019s a high-stakes strategy to leapfrog entrenched competitors. But on the other, as Google pours billions into this moonshot, a critical question looms: Can Google\u2019s brilliance in AI research and technology translate into products faster than its rivals, whose edge has its own brilliance: packaging AI into immediately accessible and commercially potent products? Can Google out-maneuver a laser-focused Microsoft, fend off OpenAI\u2019s vertical hardware dreams, and, crucially, keep its own search empire alive in the disruptive currents of AI?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Google is already pursuing this future at dizzying scale. Pichai told I\/O that the company now processes 480 trillion tokens a month \u2013 50\u00d7 more than a year ago \u2013 and almost 5x more than the 100 trillion tokens a month that Microsoft\u2019s Satya Nadella said his company processed. This momentum is also reflected in developer adoption, with Pichai saying that over 7 million developers are now building with the Gemini API, representing a five-fold increase since the last I\/O, while Gemini usage on Vertex AI has surged more than 40 times. And unit costs keep falling as Gemini 2.5 models and the Ironwood TPU squeeze more performance from each watt and dollar. AI Mode<\/strong> (rolling out in the U.S.) and AI Overviews (already serving 1.5 billion users monthly) are the live test beds where Google tunes latency, quality, and future ad formats as it shifts search into an AI-first era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source: Google I\/O 20025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Google\u2019s doubling-down on what it calls \u201c<\/strong>a world model\u201d \u2013 an AI it aims to imbue with a deep understanding of real-world dynamics \u2013 and with it a vision for a universal assistant \u2013 one powered by Google, and not other companies \u2013 creates another big tension: How much control does Google want over this all-knowing assistant, built upon its crown jewel of search? Does it primarily want to leverage it first for itself, to save its $200 billion search business that depends on owning the starting point and avoiding disruption by OpenAI? Or will Google fully open its foundational AI for other developers and companies to leverage \u2013 another\u00a0 segment representing a significant portion of its business, engaging over 20 million developers, more than any other company?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has sometimes stopped short of a radical focus on building these core products for others<\/em> with the same clarity as its nemesis, Microsoft. That\u2019s because it keeps a lot of core functionality reserved for its cherished search engine. That said, Google is making significant efforts to provide developer access wherever possible. A telling example is Project Mariner<\/strong>. Google could have embedded the agentic browser-automation features directly inside Chrome, giving consumers an immediate showcase under Google\u2019s full control. However, Google followed up by saying Mariner\u2019s computer-use capabilities would be released via the Gemini API more broadly \u201cthis summer.\u201d This signals that external access is coming for any rival that wants comparable automation. In fact, Google said partners Automation Anywhere and UiPath were already building with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Google\u2019s grand design: the \u2018world model\u2019 and universal assistant<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The clearest articulation of Google\u2019s grand design came from Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, during the I\/O keynote. He stated Google continued to \u201cdouble down\u201d on efforts towards artificial general intelligence (AGI). While Gemini was already \u201cthe best multimodal model,\u201d Hassabis explained, Google is working hard to \u201cextend it to become what we call a world model. That is a model that can make plans and imagine new experiences by simulating aspects of the world, just like the brain does.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This concept of \u2018a world model,\u2019 as articulated by Hassabis, is about creating AI that learns the underlying principles of how the world works \u2013 simulating cause and effect, understanding intuitive physics, and ultimately learning by observing, much like a human does. An early, perhaps easily overlooked by those not steeped in foundational AI research, yet significant indicator of this direction is Google DeepMind\u2019s work on models like Genie 2<\/strong>. This research shows how to generate interactive, two-dimensional game environments and playable worlds from varied prompts like images or text. It offers a glimpse at an AI that can simulate and understand dynamic systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hassabis has developed this concept of a \u201cworld model\u201d and its manifestation as a \u201cuniversal AI assistant\u201d in several talks since late 2024, and it was presented at I\/O most comprehensively \u2013 with CEO Sundar Pichai and Gemini lead Josh Woodward echoing the vision on the same stage. (While other AI leaders, including Microsoft\u2019s Satya Nadella, OpenAI\u2019s Sam Altman, and xAI\u2019s Elon Musk have all discussed \u2018world models,\u201d Google uniquely and most comprehensively ties this foundational concept to its near-term strategic thrust: the \u2018universal AI assistant.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking about the Gemini app, Google\u2019s equivalent to OpenAI\u2019s ChatGPT, Hassabis declared, \u201cThis is our ultimate vision for the Gemini app, to transform it into a universal AI assistant, an AI that\u2019s personal, proactive, and powerful, and one of our key milestones on the road to AGI.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This vision was made tangible through I\/O demonstrations. Google demoed a new app called Flow<\/strong> \u2013 a drag-and-drop filmmaking canvas that preserves character and camera consistency \u2013 that leverages Veo 3, the new model that layers physics-aware video and native audio. To Hassabis, that pairing is early proof that \u2018world-model understanding is already leaking into creative tooling.\u2019 For robotics, he separately highlighted the fine-tuned Gemini Robotics model, arguing that \u2018AI systems will need world models to operate effectively.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CEO Sundar Pichai reinforced this, citing Project Astra <\/strong>which \u201cexplores the future capabilities of a universal AI assistant that can understand the world around you.\u201d These Astra capabilities, like live video understanding and screen sharing, are now integrated into Gemini Live<\/strong>. Josh Woodward, who leads Google Labs and the Gemini App, detailed the app\u2019s goal to be the \u201cmost personal, proactive, and powerful AI assistant.\u201d He showcased how \u201cpersonal context\u201d (connecting search history, and soon Gmail\/Calendar) enables Gemini to anticipate needs, like providing personalized exam quizzes or custom explainer videos using analogies a user understands (e.g., thermodynamics explained via cycling. This, Woodward emphasized, is \u201cwhere we\u2019re headed with Gemini,\u201d enabled by the Gemini 2.5 Pro<\/strong> model allowing users to \u201cthink things into existence.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new developer tools unveiled at I\/O are building blocks. Gemini 2.5 Pro<\/strong> with \u201cDeep Think\u201d and the hyper-efficient 2.5 Flash<\/strong> (now with native audio and URL context grounding from Gemini API) form the core intelligence. Google also quietly previewed Gemini Diffusion<\/strong>, signalling its willingness to move beyond pure Transformer stacks when that yields better efficiency or latency. Google is stuffing these capabilities into a crowded toolkit: AI Studio and Firebase Studio are core starting points for developers, while Vertex AI remains the enterprise on-ramp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strategic stakes: defending search, courting developers amid an AI arms race<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This colossal undertaking is driven by Google\u2019s massive R&D capabilities but also by strategic necessity. In the enterprise software landscape, Microsoft has a formidable hold, a Fortune 500 Chief AI Officer told VentureBeat, reassuring customers with its full commitment to tooling Copilot<\/strong>. The executive requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of commenting on the intense competition between the AI cloud providers. Microsoft\u2019s dominance in Office 365 productivity applications will be exceptionally hard to dislodge through direct feature-for-feature competition, the executive said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Google\u2019s path to potential leadership \u2013 its \u201cend-run\u201d around Microsoft\u2019s enterprise hold \u2013 lies in redefining the game with a fundamentally superior, AI-native interaction paradigm. If Google delivers a truly \u201cuniversal AI assistant\u201d powered by a comprehensive world model, it could become the new indispensable layer \u2013 the effective operating system \u2013 for how users and businesses interact with technology. As Pichai mused with podcaster David Friedberg shortly before I\/O, that means awareness of physical surroundings. And so AR glasses, Pichai said, \u201cmaybe that\u2019s the next leap\u2026that\u2019s what\u2019s exciting for me.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But this AI offensive is a race against multiple clocks. First, the $200 billion search-ads engine that funds Google must be protected even as it is reinvented. The U.S. Department of Justice\u2019s monopolization ruling still hangs over Google \u2013 divestiture of Chrome has been floated as the leading remedy. And in Europe, the Digital Markets Act as well as emerging copyright-liability lawsuits could hem in how freely Gemini crawls or displays the open web.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, execution speed matters. Google has been criticized for moving slowly in past years. But over the past 12 months, it became clear Google had been working patiently on multiple fronts, and that it has paid off with faster growth than rivals. The challenge of successfully navigating this AI transition at massive scale is immense, as evidenced by the recent Bloomberg report detailing how even a tech titan like Apple is grappling with significant setbacks and internal reorganizations in its AI initiatives. This industry-wide difficulty underscores the high stakes for all players. While Pichai lacks the showmanship of some rivals, the long list of enterprise customer testimonials Google paraded at its Cloud Next event last month \u2013 about actual AI deployments \u2013 underscores a leader who lets sustained product cadence and enterprise wins speak for themselves.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, focused competitors advance. Microsoft\u2019s enterprise march continues. Its Build conference showcased Microsoft 365 Copilot<\/strong> as the \u201cUI for AI,\u201d Azure AI Foundry<\/strong> as a \u201cproduction line for intelligence,\u201d and Copilot Studio<\/strong> for sophisticated agent-building, with impressive low-code workflow demos (Microsoft Build Keynote, Miti Joshi at 22:52, Kadesha Kerr at 51:26). Nadella\u2019s \u201copen agentic web\u201d vision (NLWeb, MCP) offers businesses a pragmatic AI adoption path, allowing selective integration of AI tech \u2013 whether it be Google\u2019s or another competitor\u2019s \u2013 within a Microsoft-centric framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OpenAI, meanwhile, is way out ahead with the consumer reach of its ChatGPT product, with recent references by the company to having 600 million monthly users, and 800 million weekly users. This compares to the Gemini app\u2019s 400 million monthly users. And in December, OpenAI launched a full-blown search offering, and is reportedly planning an ad offering \u2013 posing what could be an existential threat to Google\u2019s search model. Beyond making leading models, OpenAI is making a provocative vertical play with its reported $6.5 billion acquisition of Jony Ive\u2019s IO, pledging to move \u201cbeyond these legacy products\u201d \u2013 and hinting that it was launching a hardware product that would attempt to disrupt AI just like the iPhone disrupted mobile. While any of this may potentially disrupt Google\u2019s next-gen personal computing ambitions, it\u2019s also true that OpenAI\u2019s ability to build a deep moat like Apple did with the iPhone may be limited in an AI era increasingly defined by open protocols (like MCP) and easier model interchangeability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Internally, Google navigates its vast ecosystem. As Jeanine Banks, Google\u2019s VP of Developer X, told VentureBeat serving Google\u2019s diverse global developer community means \u201cit\u2019s not a one size fits all,\u201d leading to a rich but sometimes complex array of tools \u2013 AI Studio, Vertex AI, Firebase Studio, numerous APIs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Amazon is pressing from another flank: Bedrock already hosts Anthropic, Meta, Mistral and Cohere models, giving AWS customers a pragmatic, multi-model default.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For enterprise decision-makers: navigating Google\u2019s \u2018world model\u2019 future<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Google\u2019s audacious bid to build the foundational intelligence for the AI age presents enterprise leaders with compelling opportunities and critical considerations:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. Move now or retrofit later: <\/strong>Falling a release cycle behind could force costly rewrites when assistant-first interfaces become default.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Tap into revolutionary potential:<\/strong> For organizations seeking to embrace the most powerful AI, leveraging Google\u2019s \u201cworld model\u201d research, multimodal capabilities (like Veo 3 and Imagen 4 showcased by Woodward at I\/O), and the AGI trajectory promised by Google offers a path to potentially significant innovation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Prepare for a new interaction paradigm:<\/strong> Success for Google\u2019s \u201cuniversal assistant\u201d would mean a primary new interface for services and data. Enterprises should strategize for integration via APIs and agentic frameworks for context-aware delivery.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Factor in the long game (and its risks):<\/strong> Aligning with Google\u2019s vision is a long-term commitment. The full \u201cworld model\u201d and AGI are potentially distant horizons. Decision-makers must balance this with immediate needs and platform complexities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Contrast with focused alternatives:<\/strong> Pragmatic solutions from Microsoft offer tangible enterprise productivity now. Disruptive hardware-AI from OpenAI\/IO presents another distinct path. A diversified strategy, leveraging the best of each, often makes sense, especially with the increasingly open agentic web allowing for such flexibility.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    These complex choices and real-world AI adoption strategies will be central to discussions at VentureBeat\u2019s Transform 2025<\/strong> next month. The leading independent event brings enterprise technical decision-makers together with leaders from pioneering companies to share firsthand experiences on platform choices \u2013 Google, Microsoft, and beyond \u2013 and navigating AI deployment, all curated by the VentureBeat editorial team. With limited seating, early registration is encouraged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Google\u2019s defining offensive: shaping the future or strategic overreach?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Google\u2019s I\/O spectacle was a strong statement: Google signalled that it intends to architect and operate the foundational intelligence of the AI-driven future. Its pursuit of a \u201cworld model\u201d and its AGI ambitions aim to redefine computing, outflank competitors, and secure its dominance. The audacity is compelling; the technological promise is immense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The big question is execution and timing. Can Google innovate and integrate its vast technologies into a cohesive, compelling experience faster than rivals solidify their positions? Can it do so while transforming search and navigating regulatory challenges? And can it do so while focused so broadly on both consumers and<\/em> business \u2013 an agenda that is arguably much broader than that of its key competitors?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The next few years will be pivotal. If Google delivers on its \u201cworld model\u201d vision, it may usher in an era of personalized, ambient intelligence, effectively becoming the new operational layer for our digital lives. If not, its grand ambition could be a cautionary tale of a giant reaching for everything, only to find the future defined by others who aimed more specifically, more quickly.\u00a0<\/p>\n